It is a remarkable that, for a competition that now hasn't
seen a repeat winner for 25 years, we still see so much
repetition in the Champions League knockout rounds.
This year's last-16 draw features three ties that took place
last season alone, as well as a restaging of the 1997 final.
There also are similar features: Real Madrid got an easy
draw, Bayern Munich should waltz through and it's difficult
to escape the feeling that we're going to see the ongoing
trend of all the teams who were first place in the groups
dominating. There has been only one runner-up in the
semifinal in the past four years. In that, the competition is
increasingly conforming to the quality of the super-clubs.
There is at least one big meeting between two of them, in
the hugely exciting pairing of Manchester City and
Barcelona. The fact they met last season doesn't seem to
matter so much in terms of competitiveness, given how
much has changed for both.
In the draw's biggest break, meanwhile, Arsenal finally
escaped Bayern or Barca and got a forgiving foe. Arsene
Wenger does go to somewhere he knows so well, in
Monaco, which is the general feeling from this last 16:
familiarity.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Chelsea
Jose Mourinho said on Saturday that he wanted a Parisian
draw for ease of travel and access. And, although he didn't
say this, perhaps ease of challenge. Chelsea certainly don't
look like they're going to have as tough a time as last
season, when they needed a brilliant late salvo to narrowly
eliminate PSG. Too much has changed since then.
Mourinho's side have made almost a quantum leap in
evolution of their play, while Laurent Blanc's outfit have just
looked more and more laboured, reflecting the limitations of
their manager. Blanc's potential sacking could change
things, but probably not enough to change the outcome:
Chelsea going through.
Verdict: Chelsea
Manchester City vs. Barcelona
The tie of the round for the second year in a row, but one
that also has turned a bit since last season. City did not
initially kick on in Europe given the early struggles of their
group, but the gritty way in which they ultimately got
through -- with the entire spine of stars missing -- could
represent a transformative moment. By contrast, Barca still
look in transition, and more a collection of stars rather than
cohesive unit that has made them the competition's
touchstone side over the past half-decade. Now, they're all
too reliant on their forward line.
It may still be asking a lot but if City have their own stars
in, they have a big chance to reach the quarterfinals for the
first time ever. That fact alone seems so out of place with a
tie that is genuinely 50-50. This is set to be tight, and be
decided by those players who can maximise the smallest of
margins. Barca need Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar
to click. City need Yaya Toure on top form and Sergio
Aguero at full fitness.
Verdict: Manchester City
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Atletico Madrid
One of the most refreshing ties of the round, and not just
because it is the first time the competition has seen this
pairing. There is also the contrast in styles, and the
upwardly mobile nature of both sides, who are managed by
two of the brightest young coaches in the game: Diego
Simeone and Roger Schmidt. The one big difference is that
Simeone already has blazed far brighter, having reached
the final last season and won the Spanish league in what
seemed such an unlikely fashion. That pedigree and
tournament experience should stand to them. On the other
side, Leverkusen, for all their fine football, also illustrated
their flaws by allowing first place in the group to slip. They
shouldn't even be in this tie. It will mean they probably go
out.
Verdict: Atletico Madrid
Juventus vs. Borussia Dortmund
Perhaps the most engaging tie after City-Barca, and the
one that might just be the most difficult to predict. It is a
pairing that comes at a particularly curious time for both
teams, not least given what this competition has come to
mean for them -- a prospect only deepened by the fact it
represents a repeat of the epic 1997 Champions League
final.
That spell should really have seen Juventus win more
European Cups than they did, having won only one out of
three finals between 1996 and 1998, and it still colours so
much of what they do -- especially given how the stock of
Serie A has fallen. The trophy has become their obsession,
and is the real big remaining challenge for the club as they
continue to dominate Italy. A problem has been that they
have come nowhere near replicating their domestic form.
The same can be said for Dortmund, but in a very different
way. The Champions League has come to be their one
source of solace in what has been an atrocious campaign.
While they now look in real danger of a genuine relegation
battle, they have usually been sparkling in Europe. The
wonder is what will give, what will have the bigger say.
Juventus, however, won't have a better opportunity against
one of the notional best sides.
Verdict: Juventus
Schalke vs. Real Madrid
Real Madrid official Emilio Butragueno was caught by
cameras basically trying to suppress a smile when this
draw was made, and it's not hard to see why. Real Madrid
have made a habit of racking up hugely impressive
knockout wins against lesser sides -- including a 9-2
aggregate win over Schalke at this very stage last season
-- and, with the form they're on and the forwards they've
got, this is likely to be along the same lines.
Verdict: Real Madrid
Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Bayern Munich
No real challenge for the super-favourites at Bayern, which
cannot be said about Shakhtar's campaign. It seems trivial
to discuss the situation in Ukraine in the context of football,
but there's no denying that it has made Shakhtar's
challenges so much harder this season, especially because
they don't have the advantage of being able to play at
home. They've done well to get this far, and with some fine
football on the way. It's still, however, where their
European season is likely to end. Bayern are just too good.
Verdict: Bayern Munich
Arsenal vs. Monaco
Wenger finally gets the break he so badly wanted from a
sequence of severely tough knockout draws, but he does
get a return to somewhere he knows even better than a
last-16 exit. The Arsenal manager returns to the club where
he spent seven years between 1987 and 1994. His stint at
Monaco did see Wenger reach this competition's semifinals
for the first of just three times, and this draw may at least
see him return to the quarterfinals for the first time since
2010. The fact Monaco got through despite the fewest goals
scored for a qualified team in history reflects their lack of
firepower, as well as their reduced activity in the transfer
market. This is not the new force that seemed to be rising
last season.
Verdict: Arsenal
by ROTMANLUV 2023-07-08, 17:34
